Chasing a flush on line – Occasionally the numbers just don’t add up!
There is an age old debate in poker – should you chase a flush? Initial of all we ought to define what we mean here by "chasing a flush online."
Chasing anything in Texas holdem poker is the practice of gambling to stay in a hand in the hope that you just will produce a greater hand, even though you may well have absolutely nothing in the time. So chasing a flush means gambling which you will acquire the card or card which you should complete your flush palm to the turn or river. You cannot chase a flush prior to the flop because at that time you only have 2 cards so the flush is not on.
So let’s say you happen to be playing one of the large poker sites on the internet, you’ve been dealt the Ace and nine of spades and you’ve paid to see the flop.
The flop is 2s seven-s Kd and one of your competitors comes out betting strongly with a fair sized raise, what do you do?
Initially of all ask your self what sort of hand you’re up against. The possibilities are triples, yet another flush draw, a pair of Kings or a total bluff, so as it stands you happen to be only winning against the bluff with your Ace. On the other hand if you hit a spade in the last two cards you have the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or four of a kind.
To the face of it you may assume that statistically you might have about a fifty – fifty probability of hitting your spade, after all there is two cards to come and 4 suits so there must be about a half chance, correct?
Wrong!
You already have 2 of the spades in your hand and there is yet another 2 showing about the table, so you know 5 cards and 4 of them are spades. That implies you have nine spades left readily available out of the forty seven cards you have not seen, which is only a 42 per cent probability of catching your flush.
If you do bet around the turn and do not generate your flush, what do you do then? You might have possibly now become pot-committed, you’ve put so a lot into the pot that you may as effectively wager again on the river unless there’s a large increase or all-in against you, but now your chances of making the flush have dropped dramatically to only 21 per cent.
Except what of that other factor, the mysterious web poker syndrome? What I mean by which is while you statistically have a 42 per cent opportunity of generating a flush, is that what truly occurs in reality? When you bet the identical palm at the identical web poker table 100 instances would you obtain a flush 42 times? From my personal experience I doubt it. Flushes seem to come around a good deal less frequently than 42 out of one hundred occasions!
That is just my own opinion and I’m positive the poker websites would tell you a distinct story, but the way I see it’s forty two % may be the quite Finest you happen to be ever going to receive and you may perhaps well have lots less likelihood than that of hitting your flush.
Bottom line? Chasing a flush online is a incredibly risky strategy that sucks you in and over commits you, with out giving you sufficient of a opportunity of pulling out the winning hand.